Here we are approaching week six of the NCAA Football season and the Cards have moved just two spots despite 4 teams ahead of us falling (LSU, South Carolina, Georgia and Texas A&M). As a fan, it is discerning to feel like no matter what we do that it seems like we are just running in place. Got me thinking though, what exactly needs to happen for us to make the BCS Title game in Pasadena? I started looking at the schedules of the teams above and the ones who may jump us. Here is the blueprint to our title hopes.
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Home Games: GA ST, Arkansas, Tennessee, #10 LSU, Chattanooga
Away Games: uk, Miss St, Auburn
Loss Possibilities: For me, I see LSU as the only strong chance for them to lose in the regular season. The next toughest game would be at Auburn for the Iron Bowl which is normally competitive. However they could lose in the SEC title game to a tough Georgia team. I don’t think anyone in the East can beat them other than Georgia. I don’t believe there is any scenario that gets us #2 over Alabama other than them having 2 losses.
NC Title Game Chance: 9.5 out of 10
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#2 Oregon Ducks
Home Games: Washington State, #12 UCLA, Utah, Oregon State
Away Games: Colorado, #15 Washington, #5 Stanford, Arizona
Loss Possibilities: Stanford is the only team I see that could beat them in the regular season. If they win the North than they win the Pac 12 in my opinion. Next toughest game would be Washington, maybe just because it’s on the road. Oregon would need to lose only one for us to grab #2 over them if it was down to us at the end of the year.
NC Title Game Chance: 9.5
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#3 Clemson Tigers
Home Games: BC, #8 FSU, G Tech, Citadel
Away Games: Syracuse, #25 Maryland, Virginia, #13 South Carolina
Loss Possibilities: Clemson, I believe has the toughest road to perfection out of the teams ahead of us with games left against FSU and South Carolina. With that being said I think they are the most likely to be behind us if we stay undefeated. I think they beat South Carolina but lose to Florida State. All Clemson needs to do for us to be #2 at the end of the year over them is lose one game.
NC Title Game Chance: 6
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#4 Ohio State Buckeyes
Home Games: Iowa, Penn State, IU
Away Games: #16 Northwestern, Purdue, Illini, #19 Michigan
Loss Possibilities: I don’t see one……Their schedule is awful and with the possibility of getting Michigan 2 weeks in a row to end the season it doesn’t look good for us to make the title game. Of course there can be upsets and this needs to be the school we are watching to lose every week. Only chance we get #2 if undefeated OSU is sitting there at the end of the season is if they are #1.
NC Title Game Chance: 9.9
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#5 Stanford Cardinal
Home Games: #15 Washington, #12 UCLA, #2 Oregon, Cal, ND
Away Games: Utah, Oregon St, USC
Loss Possibilities: I think Stanford also has a tough road to the BCSNC game. They could lose any of their home games with the exception of Cal and the road game to USC is never easy. They will be in the same boat as Oregon though. If they win their division, they should win Pac 12. But that would include sweeping that home schedule which I don’t think will happen. For us to grab #2 over Stanford they only need to lose once.
NC Title game Chance: 7
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#6 Georgia Bulldogs
Home Games: Mizzou, App State, uk
Away Games: Tennessee, Vandy, #18 Florida, Auburn, G Tech
Loss Possibilities: Another team who seems as if they may not have much of a regular season challenge remaining. However the Bulldogs had a killer first 4 games with the exception of the Mean Green. Nobody should touch Georgia in the regular season. This is another team we need to watch for if we want to have National Title aspirations. They would likely face Alabama, LSU or A&M in the SEC Title game. That’s where I think their title hopes end. For us to grab #2 over GA they need to lose the SEC title game or one more regular season game.
NC Title Game Chance: 8.5
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There are a few teams behind us also that are in jumping position.
Florida State (5.5)
has big games left with Clemson, Miami and Florida. Would need to go undefeated to get #2 over us in the end. Would jump us if they defeated Clemson in 2 weeks but would fall behind with another loss.
Texas A&M (9)
has games with Ole Miss and LSU left. Both are manageable. Would need to lose one more game as well to get that #2 over us as a SEC title game win trumphs us instantly. With such a soft schedule remaining I don’t see them jumping us during the season.
LSU (6)
has the daunting challenge of playing Alabama & A&M back to back weeks at the end of the season, then turning around if they survive and playing Georgia or South Carolina in the SEC Title game. Would jump us with a win over Alabama only to fall behind with their next loss.
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To summarize:
I love our team and think it is the best we have ever had at Louisville. We need a lot of help to make it to the title game and only Oregon would worry me if we played them. We can beat any team in the country this year. We need LSU to beat Alabama but lose to A&M. We need Stanford to beat Oregon then fall to UCLA. We need Clemson to lose to Florida State and then FSU to lose to Miami. We need Ohio State to just lose. We need Georgia to lose in the SEC title game. It’s just that simple. Go Cards!
