Bowl Projections: Week 12

Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando): Georgia Tech (ACC No. 3) vs. Louisville (AAC No. 2)

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BOWL (MATCHUP)

Mark Schlabach

Brad Edwards

Russell Athletic (ACC vs. American)

Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

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Sat, Dec 28   6:45 pm ESPN Russell Athletic Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2Projected Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Louisville

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(cont)

So there are the current projections which all of them have us going to Orlando for the Florida Citrus Bowl. The opponents vary but all say Orlando. To explain the BCS situation to those who don’t understand, Louisville needs one of two things to happen.

  1) We need UCF to lose two of their next four games and we need to win our last three. This situation is about 80% unlikely as UCF will probably only lose one according to the experts. I believe they can lose to both Rutgers and SMU though. Not out of the question in my mind as I put the odds of that happening at 50-50.

  (2) The Cards can secure an at-large berth in the BCS. Experts have the odds of this happening at 0%. Once again I will argue with the “experts”, it’s what I do. There are ten spots allowed for the BCS: The #1 & #2 teams in the BCS poll, the 6 power conference champions and two At-Large Berths. If a team ranked one or two also is a conference champion it opens up another at large spot. So that makes four at-large berths as a non-power conference champion has never made the title game. So as of now you have #1 Alabama vs #2 Florida State, that changes their conferences automatic berths to at-large as that requirement is already filled. The Big 12 (Baylor) (Fiesta), Pac 12 (Stanford) (Rose) , Big 10 (Ohio State) (Rose) & AAC (UCF) are all automatic leaving four spots. There’s also the Notre Dame rule which allows them entry into the BCS if they are ranked in the top eight, not happening this year. Another rule in the BCS is that a conference may have no more than two teams enter the BCS games. Oregon and Clemson, barring collapse will be selected for two of the last four spots as well as a second SEC team possibly Mizzou leaving just one spot. With the Pac 12,ACC and SEC grabbing a second team that means the last team could come from the Big Ten, Big 12 or AAC. This brings me to the final ridiculous rule in the BCS, the Cinderella rule. The highest-ranked champion of a non-AQ conference will receive an automatic berth if: It is ranked in the top 12, or ranked in the top 16 and higher than at least one AQ conference champion. At this moment Fresno State (14) meets that requirement as they are ranked higher than UCF (17).

     So where does that leave Louisville? As of now we are on the outside looking in as the last team out in my opinion. I feel like we would be selected over Michigan State, Oklahoma or Texas who would be in the first four out. Here’s what would be best other than UCF collapsing. We need for the Cinderella teams to both lose and fall out of the top 16 or UCF to jump them. If UCF wins out the Cinderella’s would have to rise to #12 and that is highly unlikely. Jumping up in the computer polls to match our Harris and Coaches Poll rankings (2/3 of BCS Formula) would also help tremendously. The computers don’t like Louisville because of our strength of schedule which they should have learned from last year when it was similar and we knocked the #2 team in the Coaches Poll out in the Sugar Bowl. Well I see people always asking how the selections work so I thought I would go in-depth a little bit. If you have any further questions DM me at @Jeremy_CSZ. Thanks and I will see you in New Orleans hopefully!

Go Cards!

Go Cards!