Prior the kickoff of the 2021 college football season, I gave you my game by game predictions. After watching the first two games I would like a mulligan. In those predictions I included the win probabilities according to ESPN’s football power index. Just as I would like to change my predictions based on what I see on the field so far, ESPN adjusted their win probabilities based on how the teams have performed so far.
Here are the preseason win probabilities and the current win probabilities. (Bye week is estimated by a non scientific poll)
| Opponent | Preseason Win % | Current Win % |
|---|---|---|
| UCF | 56.6% | 39.5% |
| FSU | 42% | 40.6% |
| Wake | 49% | 35.3% |
| UVA | 54.9% | 29.1% |
| Bye Week | 100% | 50% |
| BC | 67.6% | 49.5% |
| NC State | 40.6% | 19.4% |
| Clemson | 9.5% | 8.6% |
| Syracuse | 85% | 69.9% |
| Duke | 66.7% | 52.8% |
| UK | 57.6% | 36.6% |
It would appear that if form holds, Louisville will be favored in only TWO of their remaining 10 games. And if that form does hold true in the outcomes, Louisville would finish the season at 3-9. Let’s hope form doesn’t hold.
