“We should be penalized, no question about it, but not this team,” Pitino said. “But the NCAA didn’t make that decision. We made that decision.”

Pitino was undoubtedly upset by the impact of the ban on two fifth-year seniors, graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, but he probably was also disappointed because he knew that this Louisville team had a chance to win it all.

How good of a chance? Combining ESPN’s two rankings, the Basketball Power Index and Strength of Record, we can get an idea of what Louisville might have been capable of in the NCAA tournament.

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