EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW (2025): Louisville vs. Virginia

Pregame Prep: Things You Should Know Before the Game

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV / Radio: ESPN2 / 93.9 The Ville
• Weather: temperatures around the 70-80s; near-zero chance of rain
• Odds: Louisville -6.5, O/U 62.5 (FanDuel)
• Uniforms: Louisville (white helmet / red jersey and pants); Virginia (all white kits)

Last Time (Louisville v. Virginia): 2024

Tyler Shough threw a go-ahead five-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson with 1:55 left, and Louisville’s defense forced a late turnover on downs to hold on to a 24-20 win over Virginia. Shough completed 18-of-31 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown with an interception, while Isaac Brown rushed for 146 yards on 20 carries and two touchdowns.

Notable Numbers

• Louisville leads the all-time series 8-5. Louisville has also won the last three games in the series, all coming by seven points or less.
• Additionally, Louisville is 5-1 against Virginia at home.
• Jeff Brohm has had a comeback victory of 15+ points in every season as Louisville’s head coach. He came back from 15 down to beat Georgia Tech in 2023, came back from a 20-0 deficit to beat Boston College last season, and came back from down 17-0 last week to beat Pitt.
• Chris Bell had a career day last week, logging ten receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Bell is the first Louisville player since Tyler Hudson (2022) with a stat line of 10+ receptions and 100+ yards in a single game.
• Louisville forced five turnovers in their win over Pitt last week. Louisville has had one game of 5+ forced turnovers every season since 2022, and head coach Jeff Brohm is undefeated at Louisville when his team wins the turnover margin.

First Down: Meet the 2025 Virginia Cavaliers

2025 is a critical season for fourth-year head coach Tony Elliott, who has yet to make a bowl game in his stint at Virginia. The Cavaliers were 5-4 heading into the final stretch of the 2024 season, but lost their final three games to Notre Dame, SMU, and Virginia Tech to miss out on bowl eligibility.

So far, Virginia is 4-1 heading into this week, their only loss coming against NC State on the road. The Cavaliers are coming off their biggest win in the Tony Elliott era, knocking off #8 Florida State in double overtime last week.

Second Down: Virginia Offense Breakdown

Louisville got a ramp up in competition with their defense last week against Pitt, expect another ramp up this week with Virginia. The Cavaliers enter this week fifth in the FBS in total offense (539.6 YPG), eighth in scoring offense (45.6 PPG), and 28th in yards per play (6.76).

Quarterback Chandler Morris arrived at Virginia this season after making previous stops at Oklahoma, TCU, and North Texas. After earning All-American Conference honors in 2024 with a near 4,000-yard season and tossing 31 touchdowns for the Mean Green, Morris has been a playmaker for the Cavaliers this season, completing 72% of his passes and accounting for 14 touchdowns (ten passing / four rushing) in five games. Morris has excellent habits that you want to see out of a veteran Power Four quarterback; he’s able to hit passes in the quick and intermediate game (especially outside the hash marks), he’s able to roll out to make those happen or create opportunities with his legs.

J’Mari Taylor came to UVA from North Carolina Central and has been an immediate impact player for the Cavaliers at RB. Taylor is a tough runner with good lower body strength, and has breakaway speed once he gets to the second level. Louisville will have to get extra bodies to bring him down.

UVA’s backfield has also benefited from solid play with their offensive line this season. The Cavaliers come into this week allowing just three sacks this season (T-9th in FBS) and 17 tackles for loss (T-27th in FBS).

Virginia’s wide receiver room got revamped via the transfer portal in the offseason, bringing in Cam Ross (James Madison) and Jahmal Edrine (Purdue) to bolster their depth. Ross is a fast receiver that can make plays in the open field, and he’s also given the team a boost on special teams with a 100-yard kick return touchdown against Coastal Carolina and more big returns. Edrine has excellent size at 6’3″ and can win jump balls in traffic. Trell Harris (21 rec., 366 yards, three TDs) leads the team in receiving yards, touchdowns, and is average 17.4 yards per reception. Tight end Sage Ennis has been with head coach Tony Elliott dating back to their days at Clemson, and he’s been a valuable red zone target with three touchdowns on five receptions this season.

Key Players:

• QB Chandler Morris (72% completion, 1,279 passing yards, 14 total TDs)
• RB J’Mari Taylor (75 carries, 397 yards, seven TDs)
• WR Cam Ross (24 receptions, 286 yards, TD; 100-yard kick return TD)

Third Down: Virginia Defense Breakdown

One could say we still don’t really know what Virginia’s defense has to offer in 2025. While they’ve had solid performances against Coastal Carolina and Stanford, they’ve also given up 30+ points and 400+ yards in both of their toughest games this season (NC State and Florida State).

They do have 11 sacks, which is a solid number coming into the week and had five against Stanford two weeks ago. Daniel Rickert is another FCS-to-FBS transfer that joined the Cavaliers this season, arriving from Tennessee Tech and immediately becoming the best player on the defensive line. He’s earned all 3.5 sacks this season in the last three games. Ohio State transfer Mitchell Melton leads the team in tackles for loss (four) and has a forced fumble. Virginia will likely get their plays from these two guys if they can exploit Louisville’s issues with both pass protection and creating holes in the run game. They also brought in UNLV transfer Fisher Camac, who was productive last season with 15 TFLs and 7.5 sacks for the Rebels.

Landon Danley and James Jackson headline the linebackers for UVA, with both being among the team leaders in tackles (21 apiece). Kam Robinson has been a long time starter at UVA and has been productive, logging 60+ tackles in each of his last two seasons and has three career interceptions.

Virginia’s secondary is headlined by a pair of really solid safeties in Ethan Minter and former Louisville starter Devin Neal. Neal is a good all-around safety that can handle run and pass coverage well, he also leads the team in tackles (26). Ja’son Prevard is coming off a two-interception performance against Florida State, including an acrobatic tip-and-pick in the red zone early against the Seminoles.

Key Players:

• DL Daniel Rickert (three sacks)
• DL Mitchell Melton (18 tackles, four TFLs, sack, FF)
• S Ethan Minter (19 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, INT)

Fourth Down: Keys to the Game

When Louisville has the ball…

Louisville has had issues with creating lanes in the run game in their two toughest games to date (James Madison and Pitt), but they’ll need to get it going on the ground against the Cavaliers. Virginia has allowed 216 and 256 rushing yards in their games against NC State and Florida State, respectively (also allowing at least five yards per carry in both). The difference though is that both teams had dual threat quarterbacks with CJ Bailey and Thomas Castellanos, and while Miller Moss is able to make plays with his feet if necessary, Louisville isn’t going to call designed runs for him very often. Louisville will need to have a more consistent run game through four quarters to remain undefeated heading into another bye week.

They’ve also had issues getting off to fast starts in the early portion of the season, this is a game where you’d like to see Louisville establish momentum early and work from there. If they can get Miller Moss settled in early with the same passing game from last week, that could eventually set up Louisville’s offense to later on wear down Virginia’s defense with their talented running backs. Expect them to utilize Chris Bell or their tight ends to get bigger receivers on UVA’s secondary that struggled last week with defending Duce Robinson and FSU’s tight ends. Bottom line is, Louisville will need to avoid a slow start.

When Virginia has the ball…

Tony Elliott’s scheme has a lot of similarities to what we are accustomed to seeing from Clemson. You’ll see your share of screens, shallow crossing routes, throwing outs and trusting their quarterback to make the right decisions. Morris has shown that he can do all of that, but he is also coming off throwing three interceptions against the Seminoles. With Louisville being fresh off a game where they forced five turnovers against Pitt, they’ll need to keep Virginia from getting into a rhythm with their passing game.

Additionally, Louisville has to be able to get pressure on Morris and try to force him into throwing to tight coverage. Louisville’s front four has been excellent at winning the battles at the line of scrimmage so far, but this could be their toughest test to date on paper. They also have to keep Taylor contained in the run game and extra bodies to bring him down.