Pregame Prep: Things You Should Know Before the Game
- Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
- TV / Radio: ESPN / 93.9 The Ville
- Weather: Temperatures hovering around the 70s during the game; decent chance for rain
- Uniforms: Both teams TBA as of 12/19/25
Last Time (Louisville v. Toledo): September 12, 1981
Louisville wide receiver Mark Clayton hauled in two touchdown passes on a four reception, 113-yard evening, while the Cardinals defense had four interceptions and held Toledo to 18 total yards passing. Louisville also scored a touchdown on a blocked punt return in the first half, as the Cardinals rolled to a 31-6 win over the Rockets at Fairgrounds Stadium.
An archived box score of Louisville’s win over Toledo can be viewed on Gocards.com here.
Notable Numbers:
- Louisville leads the all-time series 5-3. The Cardinals are 30-16 all-time against the current MAC members.
- With Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykins, Jr. both logging 100-yard rushing games in their last outing versus Kentucky, Louisville has now had seven players with a 100+ yard rushing game since Jeff Brohm and running backs coach Chris Barclay came in 2023. Jennings and Boykins join a list that includes Jawhar Jordan, Isaac Guerendo, Isaac Brown, Duke Watson, and Keyjuan Brown.
- Louisville’s defense held Kentucky to 140 total yards in their last outing, their lowest against a Power Four opponent since their 34-3 win over Virginia Tech in 2023.
First Quarter: Meet the 2025 Toledo Rockets
Toledo was picked as the preseason favorite to win the MAC last July, but fell short after losing two close games in-conference to rival Bowling Green (28-23) and eventual MAC Champion Western Michigan (14-13). All four of Toledo’s losses came on the road, with two additional defeats coming at Kentucky and at Washington State.
All in all, it still ended up being another solid season for the Rockets. Toledo went undefeated at home and finished the regular season with an 8-4 record. They are currently riding a four-game win streak, outscoring opponents 125-18 in that stretch. They will be led by interim head coach Robert Weiner, with Jason Candle departing after ten seasons (with an 81-44 record and two MAC titles) to take the head coaching job at UConn. Toledo will be led by Mike Jacobs in 2026, who is coming off back-to-back FCS playoff appearances with Mercer in the last two seasons.
Second Quarter: Toledo Offense Breakdown
Despite head coach Jason Candle’s departure, the offense will maintain a lot of continuity from the regular season. Co-offensive coordinator Robert Weiner will lead the team as their interim head coach, and he’ll have a load of veterans that should help the offense tremendously.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason and running back Chip Trayanum headline a Rockets offense that led the MAC in total offense (421.8 YPG) and yards per play (6.3). Gleason played every season at Toledo and spent the last two seasons as their starter at quarterback, completing 62.5% of his passes and throwing 45 touchdowns in that stretch. He has decent size at 6’3″, 225 lbs. and can make a lot of decent throws down the field. He’s also a capable runner and can escape the pocket, but he left the game early due to injury in Toledo’s regular season finale versus Central Michigan.
If for some reason Gleason can’t play, look for freshman Kalieb Osborne (15/24, 260 yards passing, 205 yards rushing, four total TDs) to get the start at quarterback. Osborne was really efficient against CMU with a 5-for-7 outing for 108 yards passing, and is more of a threat as a runner. A good performance against a stout Louisville defense from Osborne could give Rockets fans some strong optimism heading into 2026.
Chip Trayanum came to Toledo after a brief stint at Kentucky in 2024 and immediately emerged as an impact player for the Rockets, rushing for almost 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns in ten games. He’s a big back at 5’11” and 230 lbs. with an ability to break tackles, it could give Louisville some problems with some of their starters on the defensive line sitting out of the bowl game. Kenji Christian (99 carries, 501 yards, four TDs) is a spell back that Toledo frequently uses and can get chunk yardage.
Toledo’s receiver group is headlined by Junior Vandeross III, who earned All-MAC First Team honors with a near 1,000 yard season and 11 receiving touchdowns. He’s a consistent target for Gleason, averaging six receptions per game and has had four 100-yard games this season.
Key Players:
- RB Chip Trayanum: 166 carries, 950 yards, 11 TDs
- WR Junior Vandeross III: 2025 All-MAC First Team player, 75 receptions, 947 yards, 11 TDs
Third Quarter: Toledo Defense Breakdown
Jason Candle rose through the ranks at Toledo as an offensive assistant before eventually becoming the head coach. The defense, though, was arguably the focal point of the team this team under defensive coordinator Vince Kehres. The Rockets led the MAC in total defense (247.8 YPG), tackles for loss (89), and takeaways (20). Kehres parlayed that into taking the defensive coordinator job at Syracuse for 2026.
Toledo’s pass defense was outstanding all season, only allowing 200+ yards in four games this season (Western Michigan, Ball State, Central Michigan, and Western Kentucky), 48.9% completion (best in the MAC), and allowed just nine passing touchdowns (another leading stat in the conference) with 13 interceptions (second in the conference). Even in their losses to Kentucky and Washington State, they managed to hold both teams to under 50% completion and had three interceptions.
The Rockets had three players in the secondary named as All-MAC First Team players; Andre Fuller (44 tackles, ten PBUs, INT), Braden Awls (52 tackles, five INTs), and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, who has also earned multiple All-American honors this season. McNeil-Warren could be an early round prospect to watch in the 2026 NFL Draft; he’s a big safety at 6’2″ and 200 lbs., and he plays with tremendous instincts to be able to get takeaways or big stops in the run game. Avery Smith (37 tackles, 11 PBUs) is another outstanding corner that can lock down opposing receivers.
Their pass rush has also really stepped up in their four game win streak to close the regular season, tallying 21 sacks in that stretch (including seven against Miami of Ohio). Malachi Davis (9.5 TFLs) and Martez Poynter (eight TFLs) lead the team with 5.5 sacks apiece. Linebacker K’Von Sherman has been another really solid piece in the defense, he’s able to stop the run and be an energizer on the field.
Key Players:
- LB K’Von Sherman: 2025 All-MAC First Team Player, 85 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks
- DB Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: 2025 Second Team All-American (FWAA), 73 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, three forced fumbles, two INTs
Fourth Quarter: Keys to the Game
When Louisville has the ball…
As of December 19th, Louisville seems to have a minimal number of opt-outs for the bowl game (the only notable ones up to this point are defensive linemen Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey), which bodes well for their offense after their big outing in the regular season finale versus Kentucky.
We’ll be waiting to see if one of Louisville’s three main running backs (Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown, and Duke Watson) will return, but regardless of what their running back situation looks like, expect them to lean more on the run game against Toledo. Even though Toledo has the best run defense in the MAC, Louisville’s talent level should be enough to establish the run game at some point. Toledo has been solid against the run, but two of their losses (Kentucky and Washington State) saw both teams run for over 150 yards against them, with the Wildcats rushing for 220. Louisville has been really solid with their ground game in the Jeff Brohm era, so I’d expect that to continue against Toledo.
Miller Moss will also have to play a clean game against a Toledo secondary that has been excellent at creating turnovers this season. Though they’ll be without Chris Bell once again, Louisville should have opportunities with their play action if they can establish the run early. Washington State was able to hit some big shots down the field that eventually led to scoring drives, Louisville could do the same with a more talented receiver group.
When Toledo has the ball…
Toledo is another team that, as of today, seems to have minimal opt-outs and impact transfers heading into the bowl game.
Even with Konga and Bailey opting out, Louisville should still have a raw talent advantage with their defense. If Louisville can consistently get into the backfield and keep Trayanum from getting established on the ground, forcing Gleason (or Osborne) to convert third-and-long situations would benefit their pass rush even more. Toledo has had issues with stringing together drives offensively in their losses, in particular against Western Michigan and Bowling Green where they went a combined 6-for-31 on third down.
With postseason games not counting towards the redshirt limit, this could also be an opportunity for some of Louisville’s reserves to get live game reps. With Konga and Bailey sitting out, this could be an opportunity for AJ Green and Micah Carter to have a big game and give themselves an inside track for a starting job in 2026.
