I’ve analyzed all the stats, trends, predictions and anything else I could find to read and realized that I was simply overthinking it. Trying way too hard to find something that will definitely give me the correct outcome. I’ve found plenty of stats that would indicate UK is the most likely winner. I’ve also found plenty of stats that indicate Louisville as the likely winner.
Turns out, it’s really quite simple. If Louisville’s defense can stop, or extremely slow down, the Kentucky running game, then Louisville will win.
But Nunn, UK has the 26th ranked defense only giving up 18 points per game. And they haven’t given up 35 points since 11\25\2017.
Relax, Louisville will score. Will they score 35 or more? Maybe not but they probably won’t need to.
Western Kentucky has the 28th ranked defense (2 spots behind UK) and Louisville scored 38 on them in Nashville. Louisville has also played Virginia and their 22nd ranked defense. Louisville scored 28 against them. Miami has the 15th ranked defense and Louisville scored 27 on them in Miami.
Louisville has the 26th ranked scoring offense averaging 34.5 points per game and they are ranked 28th in total offense. Kentucky hasn’t played an offense ranked as high as Louisville, which contributes to their 26th defensive ranking. The best ranked offenses UK has faced are Florida, who is 42nd in scoring with 32.4 points per game, and Toledo, who is ranked 32nd in total offense.
So, Im saying Louisville will be able to score but the problem for the Cardinals is stopping Kentucky from running the ball. They are very good at running the ball averaging 5.81 yards per carry and 252.4 rushing yards per game. Louisville gives up 4.79 yards per rush and 183 rushing yards per game.
But that’s all UK can do on offense. They can not throw the ball at all.
Here are the stats to back that…
| Rush offense rank | Pass offense rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 25th | 62nd |
| Kentucky | 12th | 126th |
- rankings are out of 130 NCAA D1 schools per NCAA.com
For everything else you need to know about the game, click here.
I would venture to say that unless UK is behind late in the game and is forced to throw, they most likely will not attempt more that 8 passes. I think there will be more UK troll social media comments on this post based on them just reading the headline than UK pass attempts.
The plan for a Cardinal victory is easy. Stop the run by maintaining gap integrity and tackle. Do this and you win.
I don’t care that the road team has won the last four. That’s just a random stat that has no real significance. It didn’t matter where last years game was played – Louisville was not going to win that one.
The CSZ staff predictions on the game will be posted tomorrow morning. Be sure to check those out and tell us what you think.
Happy Thanksgiving!
As Always, GO CARDS!
