I want to start by saying that this is my personal opinion and I’ve heard nothing from anyone associated with the athletic department about the status of the head coaching position. This is solely based on an article I wrote about my expectations of the head football coach at the school I love and looking at the potential of victories on the remaining schedule.
In that article I wrote back in July of 2019, I said
I’m giving him (Satterfield) this season with no expectations of wins but in year two, I’ll need to see a bowl game and year three should yield 8-10 wins. Around 10 wins a year should be the norm for this program. If you are just happy with six wins on a yearly basis then I suggest you move east.
I know Covid, the transfer portal, and giving players another year of eligibility has changed everything, but my expectations are still close to the same. Well, I’ve altered them a bit. Taking everything into consideration, I feel that if Satterfield only wins five games that he should be relieved of his position on January 1, 2022. If he wins six games, then he should keep his job, but will need to make some staff changes. If he wins seven or more then he is good.
Heading into the game vs Boston College on Saturday, Louisville is sitting on a 3-3 record. After losing the last two very winnable games by a combined four points, Louisville and Satterfield find themselves coming off a bye week with a very winnable home game.
With only two games on the remaining schedule after the Boston College game where Louisville should be favored (Syracuse and Duke), it seems to me that for Satterfield to get to that win total of six that I said would keep his job safe, he will need to win on Saturday. Therefore, I believe this is a must win for Satterfield and his Cards.
| Opponent | Preseason Win % | Current Win % |
|---|---|---|
| BC | 67.6% | 64.5% |
| NC State | 40.6% | 19.4% |
| Clemson | 9% | 24.1% |
| Syracuse | 85% | 65.7% |
| Duke | 66.7% | 72% |
| UK | 57.6% | 44.2% |
* Win percentages according to ESPN’s football power index
I personally believe in Coach Satterfield. I do think he is going through a learning curve in going from a mid-major to an ACC level of play. He brought his style of play into the ACC and achieved ACC Coach of the Year in year one (2019). In winning that award, I feel he believed his style of play-calling could sustain a winning tradition at this level.
He is quickly finding out that the other ACC teams have figured him out. I know that if I can tell you what play is coming in certain situations, I’m sure the opposing coaches have figured it out as well.
Quick! Tell me what play is coming on 2nd and long? I know most of you said a run play. And you would be correct.
I don’t have the official numbers, but I would guess that he calls a run play around 85% of the time on 2nd-and-6 or longer.
More importantly than the 2nd down play-calling is the way the Cards go super conservative when they have a lead. I understand keeping the clock running and not taking huge chances, but there has to be somewhere in the middle that can keep the victory assured. You just can’t take your foot off the gas completely. Super conservative is not the answer.
I know the Cards are 3-3 and you can say they are just two plays (Wake & Virginia) away from being 5-1, but they are also two plays away from being 1-5. A Clark INT sealed the win at FSU and and Alderman pick 6 sealed the win over UCF. It’s all about perspective.
So it doesn’t matter if you are one of those fans that look at it as “we are so close to being 5-1” or you are the fan that looks at it as “we could easily be 1-5.” The reality is the Cards are 3-3 with three winnable games on the the schedule. The first one is Saturday at home. Let’s go out and support this team and get that victory. The players haven’t stopped playing hard so they deserve our support.
Satterfield’s job isn’t up to us. It’s on him. If he can adjust like I think he can, then the Cards will win six, maybe seven games. If not, then they are looking at five wins and possibly a coaching search (again, just my opinion). Saturday is a MUST win!
As Always, GO CARDS!
