Everyone has opinions of the difficulty of the 2026 Louisville schedule. Not having to play Miami, Clemson and Virginia is definitely favorable as far as the ACC portion of the schedule goes. Georgia dropping us from the schedule stinks but picking up Ole Miss may have added to the strength of schedule because Ole Miss beat Georgia in the playoffs last season. I’ve already given you my annual game by game predictions but now let’s take a little closer look as I rank each game by difficulty and importance.
Read more: Louisville Football Schedule Rankings And Importance12. Villanova – Non conference game. Appears as a definite victory with a 97% chance to win.
11. Stanford – While it is a conference game. it doesn’t really help the SOS. 88% chance to win.
10. Wake Forest – This game would be tougher and mean more if it were a road game. 73% chance to win.
9. Syracuse – Playing at the Dome is always a small worry. 72% chance to win.
8. Kentucky – It’s a non conference game against an unranked team. Doesn’t really mean much for the ACC standings or SOS. It’s just for the fans. 57% chance to win.
7. North Carolina – Could be tougher with Bobby knowing what Jeff likes to do. But that goes both ways. Conference road game adds to importance. 55% chance to win.
6. Florida State – While FL State hasn’t been great lately, they are still a name and a conference opponent. 62% chance to win.
5. NC State – #5 and #4 could be interchangable. Both conference road games against good but not great teams. Both have a chance to be better than predicted. 74% chance to win.
4. Georgia Tech – * See #5. 60% chance to win.
3. Pittsburgh – I believe Pitt is being overlooked and they should have given Louisville the L last season but folded late. A conference home game this late in the season could have a lot of implications. 65% chance to win.
2. Ole Miss – Highest ranked team on the schedule. But with that, a close loss to a ranked non conference team as the opening game of the season, doesn’t destroy your season. But it’s still very important game. Toughest game on the schedule but not the most important. 26% chance to win.
1. SMU – 2nd highest ranked team on the schedule but being a conference game makes this one so much more important. Not as difficult as Ole Miss but losing this one could make it very difficult to make the ACC championship game and with that, hinders the CFP chances. A close loss to SMU is still a conference loss but a close loss to a top 10 Ole Miss doesn’t hurt as bad in the national perspective. Having SMU as their first conference game puts the winner in the drivers seat for a spot in the ACC championship game. 53% chance to win.
