Bracketology Update 2/25

We are now only 19 days away from Selection Sunday, and the Louisville Cardinals men’s basketball team has everything to play for in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding. Last week, we re-examined the Cards’ resume after the two losses to Georgia Tech and Clemson. Louisville lost a tough game to Florida State on Monday night that would have potentially moved them up a seed line in most projections. The loss does not hurt the resume, but it was one of the few opportunities remaining for Louisville to impress the Selection Committee.

Since last week, Clemson has moved into the top-75 of the NET. As things stand, the loss to Georgia Tech is Louisville’s only quad-2 loss. The Yellow Jackets have moved up to 79th in the NET, so if they move up four spots before Selection Sunday that could be reclassified as a quad-1 loss.

As of Tuesday February 25th, Louisville is 5-5 in quadrant-1 games. That’s not great, but its pretty important that Louisville remains at least .500 in those games. With only two games left in the regular season, the road matchup at Virginia next weekend is the only remaining quad-1 game on the schedule. With the loss to Florida State, it pretty much eliminates the possibility of Louisville earning the number one seed in the ACC Tournament. The Cards have already locked up a double-bye and will likely be the 2 or 3 seed. Depending on how things shape up, Louisville could play as many as two quad-1 games in Greensboro if Duke, Florida State, and UVA advance into the semifinals. That would, of course, be contingent on Louisville advancing to the semifinals and championship game. The Cards have not advanced past the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament since joining the conference before the 2014-15 season.

Bracket predictions have Louisville around the lower end of the 3-line and the higher end of the 4-line. Louisville would likely need to win five straight games heading into Selection Sunday if it wants any shot at a 2-seed.

Louie-NCC

Bracket Predictions as of 2/25 (Links Included)

ESPN: 3 seed in the Midwest playing UC Irvine
CBS: 3 seed in the South playing North Texas
FOX: 3 seed in the Midwest playing Wright State
SB Nation: 3 seed in the South playing New Mexico State
USA Today: 4 seed in the East playing Vermont
Sports Illustrated: 3 seed
TeamRankings: 4 seed (13th overall)
BracketMatrix Aggregator: 3 seed (10th overall)

ACC Bracketology:

The ACC has looked like a four bid league for weeks now. With NC State’s win over Duke last week, the Wolfpack have inserted themselves into the bubble conversation and are projected as one of the last teams into the field by nearly 75 percent of Bracketologists online. Syracuse and Notre Dame are the only other teams with a remote chance at earning an at large berth, but both teams have a lot of work to do.

As of February 25th, the BracketMatrix aggregator has these five ACC teams in the field:

Duke: 2 seed
Florida State: 2 seed
Louisville: 3 seed
Virginia: 9 seed
NC State: 11 seed (last team in)

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