2021 Football Schedule Breakdown

We are still about 7 months away from the start of the 2021 football season. So many things can and will change before then but that won’t stop Dalton and I from going over the schedule and telling you what we think might happen. It’s still way too early to give predictions but we will tell what we initially think about the schedule, tell you a little about the matchups and we will give you a way too early win probability.


Initial Thoughts

Nunn – At first look of the schedule, I noticed that the Cards are playing 7 home games. When the Cards are not playing at home, they will be in North Carolina a lot. But the season opener against Ole Miss is something that should excite most fans. Not because of the opponent, their coach (Lane Kiffin) or even one of their assistant coaches (Terrell Buckley), but rather the fact that its a drivable game (Atlanta) and it could be the game that brings some normalcy back to college football after a year of opt-outs, schedule changes, players missing games, etc etc.

For me, I love getting Virginia at home but don’t like playing NC State at their place. I’m happy to replace Virginia Tech with Duke for our cross conference game. As of now, the UCF game seems very intriguing despite the fact that they currently don’t have a head coach.

Overall, this doesn’t appear to be an easy schedule. Playing 3 good teams on the non conference slate is great for strength of schedule but that really only helps if you win a lot of games.

DP – Outside of Eastern Kentucky, the non-conference schedule is challenging for the Cardinals; I think Louisville will split the four games, with the losses coming to Ole Miss and Kentucky. Combine those two with the likely loss against Clemson, and the team will have to win four of the remaining seven conference games. I ultimately think Louisville takes care of business against Florida State, Duke, Wake Forest, and Syracuse. The other two contests against NC State and Virginia are toss ups.

Overall, I expect the Cardinals to be bowl-eligible in 2021, ranging anywhere from 6-8 wins. Over the past two seasons under Coach Scott Satterfield, the team has been involved in many one-score affairs, some good (2019) and some bad (2020). I think that trend likely continues into next season, but defensive progressions could have the Cardinals flirting with nine wins if ball security and red-zone offense improves.


Here is a look at the opponents on the Cards 2021 schedule

Monday September 6th vs Ole Miss

Location:  Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA.

Record in 2020:  5-5 (Beat #11 Indiana in Outback Bowl)

Series record:   First ever meeting

Win probability  – Nunn – 40%    DP – 35%

Saturday September 11th vs EKU

Location:  Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 3-6

Series record:  Louisville leads series 19-7-1

Last meeting:  Louisville won 42-0 (2019)

Win probability: Nunn – 97%   DP – 98%

Friday September 17th vs UCF

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 6-4

Series Record: tied at 1-1

Last meeting: UF won 38-35 (2013)

Win probability: Nunn – 72%   DP – 60%

Saturday September 25th vs Florida State

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee FL.

Record in 2020: 3-6

Series Record: FSU leads 16-5

Last meeting: Louisville won 48-16 (2020)

Win probability: Nunn – 63%  DP – 60%

Saturday October 2nd vs Wake Forest 

Location: Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC

Record in 2020: 4-5

Series Record: Louisville leads 6-2

Last meeting: Louisville won 45-21 (2020)

Win probability: Nunn – 74%.  DP – 70%

Saturday October 9th vs Virginia

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 5-5

Series Record: Louisville leads 5-4

Last meeting: UVA won 31-17 (2020)

Win probability: Nunn – 60%   DP – 52%

Saturday October 16th – BYE

Saturday October 23rd vs Boston College

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 6-5

Series Record: Louisville leads 7-6

Last meeting: BC won 34-27 (2020)

Win probability: Nunn – 47%   DP – 45%

Saturday October 30th vs NC State

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC.

Record in 2020: 8-4

Series Record: Louisville leads 7-3

Last meeting: Louisville won 34-20 (2019)

Win probability: Nunn – 33%   DP – 35%

Saturday November 6th vs Clemson

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 10-2

Series Record: Clemson leads 6-0

Last meeting: Clemson won 45-10 (2019)

Win probability: Nunn – 7%   DP – 5%

Saturday November 13th vs Syracuse

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 1-10

Series Record: Louisville leads 12-7

Last meeting: Louisville won 30-0 (2020)

Win probability: Nunn – 88%   DP – 90%

Thursday November 18th vs Duke

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium,Durham, NC.

Record in 2020: 2-9

Series Record: Louisville leads 2-0

Last meeting: Louisville won  24-14 (2016)

Win probability: Nunn – 82%   DP – 85%

Saturday November 27th vs Kentucky

Location: Cardinal Stadium

Record in 2020: 5-6

Series Record: UK leads 17-15

Last meeting: UK won 45-13 (2019)

Win probability: Nunn – 37%   DP – 35%

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