There is talk about Louisville possibly facing Florida State in the ACC Championship game. I’m not ready to pencil them in for that just yet but the possibility exists. Currently, Louisville has a 26% chance of making the ACC Championship game in Charlotte. That’s third best behind Florida State and North Carolina.
So how can the Cards make it to Charlotte? First, they have to ” handle their business.” Meaning, win their remaining ACC games. Below is a chart of ESPN’s win percentages from August compared to the current win percentages for the remaining games on Louisville’s schedule.
| Opponent | Preseason win % | Current win % |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 67.6% | 53.5% |
| VIrgina Tech | 71.5% | 78.4% |
| Virginia | 78.5% | 86.9% |
| Miami | 29.1% | 66.6% |
| Kentucky | 41.4% | 68.3% |
If the Cards handle their business, then a lot of other things beyond their control need to happen.
If the scenario arises that they are tied, the ACC tie-breaker rules are as follows,
- Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
- Win-percentage against all common opponents
- Win-percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish and proceeding through other common opponent based on their order of finish.
- Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
- The tied team with the higher ranking by the team rating score metric by SportSource Analytics following the end of regular season games.
- The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner
If the Cards tie with North Carolina for 2nd in the ACC standings, Louisville would need Virginia to finish higher than Pitt in the standings.
North Carolina’s remaining schedule:
Georgia Tech
Campbell
Duke
Clemson
NC State
Bottom line is Louisville just needs to worry about winning the rest of their ACC games. From there, it’s out of their control. But it sure is nice to be having this conversation. Right?
If UNC closes with consecutive wins over Duke, Clemson & NC State, it will deserve a spot in the ACC championship. Given their history, however, I don’t expect that to happen; in fact, I’d say they’re more likely to lose 2 of those 3.