Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV / Radio: ABC / 93.9 The Ville
Spread: Florida State -2.5, O/U 47.5 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
Last Time:
Trailing 21-14 at halftime, and with starting quarterback Jordan Travis sidelined with an injury, Florida State rallied to pull off a 35-31 victory over Louisville in primetime. Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker had a solid outing in relief duty, completing 6-of-10 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. Florida State’s win was powered by wide receiver Johnny Wilson’s strong outing, as he had seven catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns (both of them coming in the final quarter).
Florida State leads the all-time series 17-6. FSU has won five of nine meetings since Louisville joined the ACC in 2014. This is Florida State’s sixth ACC Championship Game appearance, whereas this will mark Louisville’s first ever appearance.
Heading in: Florida State
Florida State heads into Saturday night with a perfect 12-0 regular season record, sporting notable wins over LSU, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, and Miami. A win on Saturday night would put Florida State in position to potentially make their first College Football Playoff appearance since 2014, the inaugural season for the CFP.
Florida State Offense: What to Know
After Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury in FSU’s win over North Alabama, Tate Rodemaker stepped in to become the new starting quarterback for the Seminoles to close the season. Rodemaker is somewhat making himself known to college football fans given FSU’s potential to reach the College Football Playoff, but he’ll be plenty familiar with Louisville fans after last year’s meeting with the Cardinals.
He performed somewhat decently in last week’s start on the road against Florida, completing 12-of-25 passes for 148 yards.
(Updated 12:07 p.m. ET) However, there have been rumors that Rodemaker may miss the game. I can’t confirm anything, but if Rodemaker isn’t able to play, the starting spot would likely go to true freshman Brock Glenn. Glenn committed to FSU in last year’s recruiting class, and was the #21 QB prospect (#9 in Tennessee) according to 247Sports.
Florida State has a ton of talent at every skill position. Florida State has two outstanding receivers in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. Both are excellent in their own way; Coleman leads the team in touchdown receptions (11) and he is a big play threat any time he touches the ball. Wilson is a huge target at 6’7″ and can win a lot of contested catches using his height. Coleman will almost certainly be chosen in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and I think there is potential for Wilson to be a solid receiver (maybe even a tight end) in the NFL someday.
Louisville did a decent job of defending Mitchell Evans in their win over Notre Dame back in October, but Jaheim Bell will likely be the best tight end they will face all year. Bell is as dynamic a playmaker as you will see from the position. Head coach Mike Norvell is creative in how he’s able to create space for all of his playmakers, and he’s able to use Bell in a variety of ways as a receiver, whether that is a backfield option or out wide. Louisville will have to be mindful of where he is lined up and what matchups FSU may try to exploit.
Trey Benson rounds out the offense as Florida State’s next big thing at running back. FSU leaned on him more in their win over Florida last week, as Benson scored three touchdowns to give the Seminoles the edge over their rival. He’s a tough runner that can get you the yards you need, and then some. He’s also been aided by an offensive line that has been solid all season, led by two First-Team All-ACC honorees Darius Washington and D’Mitri Emmanuel.
Players to Watch: WR Keon Coleman (46 rec., 639 yards, 11 TDs); RB Trey Benson (138 carries, 838 yards, 14 TDs); TE Jaheim Bell (39 rec., 503 yards, two TDs)
Florida State Defense: What to Know
The Florida State defense has been outstanding all season long, ranking tenth nationally in pass defense, 47th in rush defense (140.1 YPG allowed), 20th in total defense (315.5 YPG), and 11th in scoring defense (16.8). They also boast one of the best turnover margins in the nation, holding a +11 margin (T-5th in FBS).
The Seminoles got an unexpected boost when Jared Verse turned down a potential first round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft to return for one more season. He has been expectedly solid for the Seminoles, tied for the team lead in sacks and one of two players with 10+ TFLs. He’s an extremely athletic edge rusher that has a strong first step and quickness. As far as intangibles, Verse will be one of the best defensive linemen that Louisville has seen this season.
Florida State has a ton of talent on the defensive line to complement Verse. Patrick Payton has had a breakout season as the weak side edge, leading the team in tackles for loss and has nine PBUs to boot. They also have a pair of All-ACC Second Team players inside with Joshua Farmer (6.5 TFLs, five sacks) and Western Michigan transfer Braden Fiske (12 TFLs, six sacks). Fiske is a bowling ball inside and can really test Louisville’s ability to run inside with Jordan and Guerendo.
Also helping Florida State is the talent that they have at linebacker. Kalen DeLoach leads the team in tackles and he can pretty much do everything well. He and Tatum Bethune make a really strong linebacker duo that can defend against the run and pass well.
The secondary has been tremendous for Florida State, anchoring a pass defense that is tenth in FBS (175.3 yards per game allowed) and allowed just eight passing touchdowns with six yards per attempt (T-7th in FBS). Fentrell Cypress came over from Virginia and has been tremendous in coverage, with eight pass breakups. Renardo Green anchors the other outside corner spot and has also been great in coverage, leading the team with ten pass breakups. Jarrian Green leads the team in interceptions and has had two in the last three games. They also have great safeties in Shyheim Brown (44 tackles, two sacks, INT) and Akeem Dent that can make plays also.
Players to Watch: DE Jared Verse (nine TFLs, seven sacks, FF); LB Kalen DeLoach (63 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, seven sacks); DE Patrick Payton (11.5 TFLs, five sacks, nine PBUs)
Keys to the Game
- Can Louisville’s defense regain its form?
Louisville’s defense has had a rough stretch in the last three games against Virginia, Miami, and Kentucky. The Cardinals have struggled with allowing big plays and especially evident in the passing game, where they’ve allowed 9.1 yards per attempt in that stretch.
They will need to keep Florida State from giving their quarterback time in the pocket and delivering to their playmakers. Wilson is tremendous with catching the ball in traffic and is naturally going to be a mismatch with his length, and Coleman is an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands. Coleman especially can be problematic as a returner or after the catch, which is important given Louisville is coming off a game where they allowed a kick return touchdown and receivers to get yards after contact.
To do that, Louisville will need to find its groove with getting pressure and staying consistent. They’ve shown spurts of being able to harass quarterbacks in the pocket in those stretches, but failing to get home has led to those teams being able to create plays. That cannot happen against a team with as much talent at the skill positions as Florida State has.
- Louisville will need to neutralize the FSU defensive line
Florida State’s defense is loaded with playmakers at every level, but for Louisville to be able to get the most out of its offense, they need to keep the front four from wreaking havoc all night.
The key aspect of this is giving Plummer time in the pocket to give his receivers a chance at making plays. Teams like LSU, Boston College, and Clemson have shown that Florida State can be prone to big plays from the passing game, and Louisville has the personnel to make it happen. It will be tough sledding since Florida State has been excellent at making plays on the ball and in coverage, but they will need to create splash plays in the intermediate and deep passing game to open things for their running game.
