Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
TV / Radio: Fox / 93,9 The Ville
Spread: Louisville -7, O/U 58.5 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
Last Time:
This is the first ever meeting between Louisville and USC. Louisville is 3-6 all-time against teams from the Pac-12 (2-1 vs. Arizona State, 1-1 vs. Oregon State, and 0-4 vs. Utah). This marks the first time since 1993 that Louisville has played against a school from California.
Heading in: USC
Picked as the preseason favorite to win the Pac-12, the Trojans regressed significantly under second year head coach Lincoln Riley. USC had a 6-0 start and was ranked as high as fifth in the AP poll, but lost five of its final six games to finish the regular season with a 7-5 record.
USC Offense: What to Know
USC will have several players out of the bowl game on offense, including former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams (opting out), leading rusher Marshawn Lloyd (116 carries, 820 yards, nine TDs), and receiver Brenden Rice (45 rec., 791 yards, team-high 12 touchdowns).
With five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson also entering the transfer portal, this likely leaves Miller Moss as the starter for USC not only in the bowl game, but potentially going forward with the 2024 season. Moss has only played in backup duty behind Williams, but he’s been fairly efficient in that time. He is completing 76% of his passes (35-for-46) for 468 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions in two seasons under Riley. Riley’s proven track record with quarterbacks such as Williams, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray should give Moss a fair shot at being a solid quarterback as USC transitions to the Big Ten next season.
Despite the departure of Rice, Moss is going to have some playmakers at wide receiver to challenge the Cardinals pass defense. Leading receiver Tahj Washington and Zachariah Branch figure to be the most impactful playmakers here. Washington has been a veteran presence for the Trojans since arriving in 2021 (previously played at Memphis), while Branch is a true freshman that is a dynamic playmaker as both a receiver and a returner. Both guys have big play potential and can get chunk plays, which has been an issue for Louisville in the last three games.
The Trojans will likely turn to Austin Jones and Quinten Joyner to lead the ground game, with Lloyd opting out of the bowl game alongside Williams. Jones has had three 100-yard games in his career (including 127 this season against Washington), but has otherwise served as a third option in the run game behind Lloyd and even Caleb Williams (who led the team with 11 rushing touchdowns this season). Miller Moss can buy time with his legs if necessary, but it’s uncertain whether or not he can improvise and provide USC with the running ability that Caleb Williams had.
Key Players: QB Miller Moss (73% career completion, 542 yards, 3/0 TD/INT), WR Tahj Washington (52 rec., 963 yards, six TDs), WR Zachariah Branch (29 rec., 311 yards, five all-purpose touchdowns)
USC Defense: What to Know
Ask any USC fan where things went wrong with the 2023 season, and a majority of them will point towards the abysmal production from their defense. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired midseason amidst a horrendous season from the Trojans defense, one which ranked 123rd in total defense (438.8 YPG allowed), gave up 31 passing touchdowns (132nd out of 133 FBS schools), and 7.8 yards per attempt (T-97th in FBS). This should give Louisville fans some confidence about their offense, despite both Jawhar Jordan and Jamari Thrash also opting out of the bowl game in preparation for the NFL Draft.
However, one positive for the USC defense is their ability to make plays in the backfield. USC tallied 81 TFLs (T-32nd in FBS) and 27 sacks (55th in FBS). Senior edge rushers Jamil Muhammad and Solomon Byrd have been solid outside with six sacks apiece, they also lead the team with ten and 11 TFLs, respectively. Bear Alexander was one of the big transfer portal gets for USC in the offseason, he has also had a solid 2023 with 5.5 TFLs and four PBUs inside. Alexander is going to be a key piece for the Trojans defense next season with new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn (son of former LA Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn), who had the Bruins 12th in total defense this season.
The secondary was a huge letdown for USC all season long. In USC’s final eight games, they gave up no less than 34 points in each of them (including 40+ in five of those eight), and a large portion of that falls on their pass coverage. In five of those eight games, USC allowed over eight yards per attempt in five of them (including 10.2 to Utah, and 12.9 to Oregon).
Key Players: EDGE Solomon Byrd (45 tackles, 11 TFLs, four forced fumbles), EDGE Jamil Muhammad (41 tackles, ten TFLs, six sacks, two forced fumbles)
Keys to the Game
- Louisville has to limit big plays from Washington and Branch
USC’s wide receivers will definitely provide a challenge for Louisville’s secondary if Moss is able to get the ball in their hands. Despite his teams lacking a strong defensive identity, Lincoln Riley is still one of the best offensive minds in college football. So it wouldn’t be surprising for him to try and find creative ways to get his playmakers the ball as often as possible and put them in space.
In the case of Zachariah Branch, one also has to wonder if Louisville’s special teams will try to kick around him and minimalizing his impact on the game. He has both a kick return and punt return touchdown this season, and any sort of edge USC can create there will help Moss with scoring opportunities.
- Could Louisville play complementary football on offense?
I spent a good portion of this article talking about the woes surrounding USC’s pass defense, but I do think this is a game where Louisville can play complementary football on offense. USC has also had issues with their run defense as well, giving up 190+ rushing yards in eight of 12 regular season games (including four times in the second half of the season). USC just hasn’t been able to contain big plays or make consistent tackling all season long, and that could be problematic against a Louisville offense that has been so good at running the football for most of the season.
With Guerendo proving to be a capable RB1 in this game, it could be a chance for Louisville to parlay his physical running game into a very potent play action passing attack. Even without Thrash, Louisville has proven playmakers in Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, Kevin Coleman, and Chris Bell who can stretch the field and make plays.
- Can Louisville’s front seven stifle Moss and force USC into third-and-long situations?
USC also hasn’t been strong on the offensive line either. The Trojans rank 107th in sacks allowed (33), and that’s with a quarterback with uncanny scrambling ability who is potentially going to be the #1 overall pick in next spring’s 2024 NFL Draft. Moss has a nice release and can create time with his feet, but he’s still largely an unproven commodity in meaningful playing time.
Louisville’s pass rush will have to continue to make plays and force USC into third-and-long opportunities. They’ve usually been reliable this season when it comes to facing either underperforming quarterbacks or weaker offensive lines, but Louisville will need to generate pressure as they have all season and force USC to try and convert third-and-longs.
