Today is the day, as Louisville baseball begins its 2024 season down in Tampa, Fla. with a weekend series, facing Indiana State, UConn, and USF.
Let’s take a look at what to expect from the Cardinal Nine.
Okay, so first question… is Louisville primed for a great season?
If you’re a believer in following the trends, Louisville could be in position to return to the NCAA Tournament. 2021 and 2023 saw the Cardinals miss the tournament for just the second and third time under head coach Dan McDonnell, respectively. 2022, however, was different; the Cardinals not only were able to secure a hosting bid in the regional (and winning it), they also had a close Super Regional loss to Texas A&M in College Station.
Here are some other parallels to 2022; they also opened the season in Tampa, even playing both UConn and South Florida on opening weekend. And like 2022, Louisville opens the season unranked in every major poll. I’m not here to tell you to put a lot of stock into these coincidences, but I’d be remiss to point that out.
Anyway, let me try to answer the question. All signs point towards Louisville avoiding the letdown that they had last season. What their ceiling looks like, though, remains uncertain to me. They’re projected to finish fifth in the Atlantic Division in the ACC preseason poll, and as mentioned earlier, unranked in every major poll to start the season.
Their schedule, as usual, is loaded with some tough competition in the ACC. Louisville has a home series against NC State, Virginia, and Clemson, with road tilts against Miami, Florida State, and #1 Wake Forest in their conference slate. They also have their annual midweek matchup at Vanderbilt in early May, giving the Cardinals a handful of potential matchups against Top 25 opponents.
Louisville does have talent returning from last year’s team, but the Cardinals bolstered their roster in the offseason with acquisitions from the transfer portal, and a freshman class that was ranked tenth in Perfect Game’s rankings.
What is Louisville’s pitching rotation going to look like?
First, we will look at Louisville’s pitching rotation. Louisville finished last season with a 4.39 cumulative ERA (5.16 against conference foes) and a .245 opponent batting average, both numbers that will have to improve as Louisville once again faces stout competition within the ACC.
Go ahead and pencil in Carson Liggett as a weekend starter for Louisville. He was Louisville’s top starter last season by the numbers, going 7-2 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched. He’ll likely be Louisville’s top right-hander in the rotation, and paired with incoming Wright State transfer Sebastian Gongora, McDonnell and pitching coach Roger Williams has a solid #1 and #2 starter on the weekends.
Gongora arrives at Louisville after playing at Wright State the previous two seasons, earning Horizon League Pitcher of the Year honors last year with a 10-1 record, posting a 3.17 ERA and 89 strikeouts. He’ll be another weekend starter, potentially even the Friday guy.
As for the third starter and midweek option, that looks to be a more competitive race. Jake Karaba is another pitcher that Louisville signed from the portal this offseason, a starter that was a Division II All-American at Lewis University last season. Karaba finished 2023 with a 7-2 record and a 1.69 ERA, with 119 strikeouts in 66.2 innings, and was top ten nationally in D2 in numerous categories, including WHIP (second, .81). Karaba gives Louisville a strong veteran in the rotation, and should be in the mix as a third starter, with his floor being a very solid bullpen option.
Outside of those three, Louisville has a very healthy mix of veterans and young arms in their pitching rotation. Kaleb Corbett should be primed to return as Louisville’s closer in 2024. The right-hander from Fern Creek had a strong 2023 season, posting a 1.69 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched. He has five career saves and even spent time as Louisville’s closer in his freshman season in 2021, which should give him the inside track to be Louisville’s top option for the end of games this season.
Evan Webster (4-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and Riley Phillips (4-2, 4.08 ERA) are Louisville’s top returning southpaws, both could be among the first names out the bullpen this season and even in the mix for midweek starts. Kayden Campbell (2-1, 5.12 ERA) led the team in appearances last season and should be in the mix for top lefties from the bullpen.
Patrick Forbes (.258 batting, 7.71 ERA) has excellent two-way potential and after a strong showing in the Cape Cod League last summer with a 2.45 ERA, hopes to translate that into a breakout 2024 campaign. Look for Tucker Biven (0-2, 4.81 ERA) and Will Koger (2-1, 4.81 ERA) to join Forbes as the top right-handed options for Louisville’s bullpen.
A huge chunk of Louisville’s highly touted recruiting class was the pitching talent they signed. Colton Hartman and Parker Detmers were two of Louisville’s highest rated recruits from the class, ranking 42nd and 113th on Perfect Game’s rankings. Hartman has exceptional arm talent with a fastball that’s already hitting the mid-90s as a freshman, giving him a shot to peak at 98 or 99 MPH by the time his third year comes around. Hartman, along with Gongora, gives Louisville two high upside lefties that could elevate Louisville’s pitching rotation back to the top of the ACC. Adding strong lefties to the lineup will be important for Louisville’s ceiling this season, as they look to replace the departing Tate Kuehner (MLB Draft) and Greg Farone (transfer portal, Alabama).
Detmers joins his older brother, Reid, in playing for Louisville. He’s a right-hander that has a solid curveball like his older brother does, he should be in the mix to get early bullpen reps and figures to be a future starter alongside Hartman.
What is Louisville’s batting lineup going to look like?
From my eye, there appears to be less uncertainty surrounding the position players and batting lineup. Even though Louisville has to replace both Jack Payton and Christian Knapczyk, McDonnell and his staff have done an excellent job building depth at catcher and shortstop, respectively.
Louisville got a much needed veteran at catcher with signing Luke Napleton, another Division II acquisition. Like Karaba, Napleton was also a D2 All-American, leading D2 in home runs (29) and RBIs (87) while posting a .358 batting average at Quincy University. He gives Louisville some much needed power in the lineup, as the Cardinals were 11th out of 14 ACC schools in slugging percentage (.441), and 13th in total home runs (57).
Louisville also bolstered their depth at catcher with two signees from the 2023 recruiting class. Zion Rose and George Baker both were among Louisville’s highest rated recruits in the class, ranking 75th and 248th last season, respectively. Rose is very athletic with a good balance of power and speed, and has the range to play in the outfield if needed.
As for shortstop, Gavin Kilen slides over from second base to man that position. Kilen had a solid freshman season in 2023, posting a .265 batting average with nine doubles and 18 RBIs. He has the potential to be a .300 hitter in the lineup with his consistent, patient approach at the plate. Alex Alicea was another top 500 recruit in Louisville’s 2023 class that should provide depth at shortstop.
Now, onto the other infield spots. Louisville’s other big name transfer acquisition was Dylan Hoy from Marist, who will likely be the starter at second base. Hoy arrives at Louisville after spending four seasons with the Red Foxes, posting a career .277 batting average with 65 RBIs, 25 doubles, and a .419 on-base percentage. He also has 95 career walks to 75 strikeouts, giving Louisville another patient hitter at the plate that will be sorely needed this season.
At the corners, expect Logan Beard and Ryan McCoy to reprise their roles from last season. Beard hit .282 last year with ten doubles, seven home runs, and 34 RBIs. McCoy showcased huge power and started 2023 hot, but finished with a .247 batting average (.200 against ACC opponents) and struck out 65 times last year. Brandon Anderson could also slide in at either position (more likely third base), but figures to see his role as the team’s designated hitter. Anderson was the team’s top returning hitter (.295 batting, eight doubles, 25 RBIs) and given his steady improvement at the plate in his last two seasons, he should be in the mix to average .300+ in 2024.
Louisville also returns all three starters from last year’s outfield, as JT Benson, Eddie King, Jr., and Isaac Humphrey all come back for one more season. Benson and King could be in the mix to be the team’s leadoff hitter, as both are among the team’s top returners in stolen bases (Benson’s 16 to King’s 11) and are also among the team’s best returning batters (Benson .288, King .274). Both guys are also excellent defensively and that shouldn’t change in 2024. Humphrey regressed last season after a strong 2022 campaign, but still had a solid run with .246 batting, 24 RBIs, and 31 walks (second on the team). Patrick Forbes could see some starts in the outfield as a reserve as well, most likely at left field as he did last season. Korbyn Dickerson could also see some playing time in 2024 in the outfield, after missing last season. Dickerson was a two-time All-State player in Kentucky at Trinity High School and drafted in the 20th round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the Minnesota Twins, but passed on that to come to Louisville.
Projected Starters
Starting Pitchers: Sebastian Gongora (FRI), Jake Karaba (SAT), Carson Liggett (SUN), Parker Detmers (midweek)
Closer: Kaleb Corbett
Top Relievers: Riley Phillips, Evan Webster, Patrick Forbes, Colton Hartman, Kayden Campbell, Tucker Biven
Infield: Ryan McCoy (1B), Dylan Hoy (2B), Gavin Kilen (SS), Logan Beard (3B), Luke Napleton (C)
Outfield: JT Benson (LF), Eddie King, Jr. (CF), Isaac Humphrey (RF)
