Nunnsense | Louisville Football Expectations vs Reality

(Editor’s Note- These are Jeff’s thoughts & don’t necessarily reflect those of us at CSZ)

The football season for Louisville starts this weekend and as usual expectations are through the roof. We hear all the preseason talk about how so and so has improved so much and how the addition of certain transfers filled a big need. I fall for all the preseason coach speak talk every year. By fall for it every year I mean I over inflate the actual value of the improvements and additions. I, along with many of you, assume that all the coach speak will equate to a 10 win season.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that it can’t happen but I will tell you it’s not likely and shouldn’t be expected. Expecting a 10 win season only sets you up to be disappointed.

I get it that as fans if we want a successful football program we should hold our coaching staff to a higher standard and that standard is 8-10 win seasons (in my opinion).

I think it’s coming very soon but not this season.

I think all the hype of the Flyville ’23 commits has fans expectations a bit too high. I wonder if many casual fans that take to social media running their mouths about how good Louisville will be this season really know that those highly rated recruits won’t even be on campus until next year and that there is a chance a couple of those commits flip their commitments to other schools.

Yes, the future is very bright and with the NIL deals, I don’t expect to see many, if any, flips or decommitments.

But the future isn’t the 2022-2023 season. For the upcoming season the reality is somewhere between 6 and 8 wins. Sure it’s possible to win 9 or 10 but its also possible to win 4 or 5.

When Vegas released their win totals for the college football regular season, they posted Louisville’s win total at 5.5 wins. I was recently in Vegas and went to place a wager on the over but I couldn’t find a casino that would give me anything lower than 6.5 wins. Meaning if you follow along with Vegas, they believe Louisville will win 6 or 7 games.

From Sports betting expert Dan Dobish of

The schedule starts off with a pair of road games, which is formidable, but winnable. It’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility that the Cards could open 3-2 or 4-1 with a game against an FCS foe, albeit one of the top teams at that level, remaining. With Cunningham, this is a difficult team to handle, especially at home. At the least, this is a team with five-win potential, and at best, it is a team with seven-win potential. I’ll go down the middle and say six. Play the OVER lightly.

Best BetLouisville Over 5.5 Wins (-130)

I don’t totally disagree with Dan but I say the Cards win 7 regular season games and win a bowl game as well. Here are my game by game predictions.

And while we are talking about reality, those of you who say Satterfield is gone if the Cards win less than 8 games, you would be incorrect. With the recruiting class Satt has lined up, he could win 6 games and he would be given the opportunity to coach those recruits for at least a year or two. 5 wins would make athletic director Josh Heird  have to make a very difficult decision. A 4 win season and it would seem likely Satt would need to contact his realtor.

If Satt would need to be replaced after this season, the expectation is that Jeff Brohm would take the keys to the program. It’s widely known that Brohm has said he wouldn’t turn down Louisville if they offered again but the realty is, they may not offer.

I want to be in the situation where our expectations as fans are a yearly win total of somewhere between 8-10, but the current reality is that we are not there just yet. I have faith it’s coming. Be patient fellow Card fans. Let’s just enjoy this season for what it is … a step in the right direction towards a better future.

As always, GO CARDS!

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