Kickoff: Noon ET
TV / Radio: ABC / 93.9 The Ville
Spread: Louisville -7.5, O/U 50.5 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
Last Time:
In their last meeting, Kentucky extended their winning streak over Louisville to four games with a 26-13 win over the Cardinals. UK’s victory was led by a strong performance from their defense, forcing three turnovers and holding U of L to 309 total yards. Christopher Rodriguez had 120 yards on the ground, while Will Levis completed 11-of-19 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Kentucky leads the all-time series 19-15. UK has won the last four games in the series by an average margin of 31.25 points, dating back to 2018.
Heading in: Kentucky
After starting 5-0 and reaching as high as 20th in the AP poll, Kentucky has dropped five of its last six games. The Wildcats enter Saturday afternoon with a 6-5 record, and have yet to beat a team with a winning record entering this week.
Kentucky Offense: What to Know
11th-year head coach Mark Stoops made a lot of changes in the offseason to try and improve what was a disappointing offense from 2022. Stoops brought back Liam Coen from the Los Angeles Rams as his offensive coordinator, and he brought in two big names from the transfer portal to replace Levis and Rodriguez.
First, Stoops brought in one of the biggest names in the transfer portal with former NC State quarterback Devin Leary. He had a strong 2021 and a solid 2022, more of the same in 2023 as he’s had 20 touchdowns to nine interceptions. However, he’s had issues with accuracy and timing with his receivers. Leary has only had three games with a 60% completion percentage or higher, and only two 300-yard games all season. He has the arm talent to make some throws, and the receivers are also talented to complete them, the chemistry with Leary just hasn’t materialized.
The second big name is at running back, where Ray Davis joined the team after four seasons at Vanderbilt. Davis is a tough runner with a strong base and able to shed tacklers, he’s also got a burst of speed when he can get to the second level. He’s also been helped by an offensive line that has been substantially better; UK has allowed just 18 sacks all season (T-42nd in FBS) and 55 tackles for loss (T-40th in FBS). He had a monster 280-yard game against Florida, but just two 100-yard games after that (112 against Ball State, 128 against Missouri). He’s far and away the bell cow of the running back group, as backups Ramon Jefferson (20 carries, 165 yards), Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (20 carries, 139 yards, TD), and JuTahn McClain (26 carries, 138 yards, TD) have 66 carries combined to Davis’s 172. Davis is also a threat in the passing game, with 25 receptions (fourth on the team) and he actually leads the team in receiving touchdowns.
A lot of UK’s success on offense points towards using him well and parlaying it into stretching the field; in wins, UK averages six yards per carry and 7.7 yards per attempt; in losses, those numbers drop to four yards per carry and six yards per attempt.
Kentucky returned a majority of their production at wide receiver from last year, with Dane Key, Barion Brown, and Tayvion Robinson all coming back in 2023. All three guys are roughly neck-and-neck-and-neck as far as leading the team in production; Robinson leads the team in receptions (38), while Key leads in yard (528) and yards per catch (14.7). Brown is a speedster that can test the defense vertically and provide a boost in the return game; he is probably the biggest mismatch that UK has, given Louisville’s been susceptible to the big plays in their closest games. Key has big play and big catch ability that can be on display.
Players to Watch: RB Ray Davis (172 carries, 990 yards, 12 TDs); QB Devin Leary (56.4% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 20/9 TD/INT ratio); WR Barion Brown (38 rec., 391 yards, three TDs; 27 yards per kickoff return with a KR TD)
Kentucky Defense: What to Know
A large reason why Mark Stoops has enjoyed a successful tenure recently at Kentucky is because of defensive coordinator Brad White. White enters his fifth year as UK’s defensive coordinator (sixth on staff), and each year, his defenses have been anywhere from rock solid to outstanding.
And as has been the case for Kentucky in the Stoops era, most of their success starts in the front seven. Their defensive line still has nice depth with guys like Octavious Oxendine (19 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) and Tre’vonn Rybka (21 tackles, four TFLs) contributing. Everything starts with Deone Walker, who could be in line for an All-SEC spot. He’s a huge interior lineman at 6’6″, 348 lbs., and is an outstanding athlete inside. He can rip through guards and centers and make plays against the run. Louisville will probably need to double team him regularly to prevent Walker from disrupting the Cardinals running game.
The linebacker group is still the strength of the defense, with Trevin Wallace and J.J. Weaver both returning from last year’s group. Weaver hasn’t been able to replicate his 2021 season (32 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, four sacks in ’23), but he’s a prototypical EDGE at 6’5″ and 240+ lbs., he can make a play with his athleticism. Wallace has been a solid all-around linebacker for the Cats, able to make plays in both run stoppage and pass coverage. D’Eryk Jackson has been the leading tackler (70) and he can fly everywhere on every given play as well.
Maxwell Hairston has been the most important piece for UK this season. He’s added a needed playmaker for the Cats in the secondary, leading the SEC in interceptions (five) and having two pick sixes on the season. He’s a tall cornerback at 6’1″ and that will help if Louisville chooses to stretch the field vertically on Saturday. Zion Childress adds another tall corner (6’0″) that can match up physically with Louisville’s receivers.
Key Players: DL Deone Walker (10.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks); CB Maxwell Hairston (five INTs, five PBUs, 60 tackles); LB Trevin Wallace (58 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, forced fumble)
Keys to the Game
- Will Louisville be able to protect Jack Plummer and get the passing game going?
One of the biggest reasons why Kentucky has had the upper hand in the rivalry the last few years is because UK has usually had an edge on both sides of the ball at the line. I think Louisville has narrowed the gap the last couple of years there, but rivalry games are still largely unpredictable.
For the Cardinals to be successful on offense, they need to be able to protect Jack Plummer and be able to run the ball on occasion. Plummer has been able to win games for Louisville (see: GT and Miami), and UK has largely lost their games due to being unable to stop the pass. In their five losses, UK has given up 9.5 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions while giving up 273 yards per game in them. Louisville has the players to be able to stretch the field vertically, but they also haven’t had to do much of that since the bye week.
But I am also more encouraged with Louisville’s chances, given their offensive gameplan last week against Miami. They were able to complete passes to 12 different receivers last week against the Hurricanes. including ten receptions by tight ends (and one to an offensive lineman). Spreading the ball around will take pressure off Louisville’s receivers to try and win the game for Louisville, and keep Kentucky’s defense from locking on to Thrash / Coleman / Huggins-Bruce.
- Louisville’s defense will need to keep Kentucky from stretching the field vertically
Despite Kentucky’s inability to maintain a consistent passing game, they have playmakers on offense that can test Louisville. Brown can test the Cardinals secondary with his ability to stretch the field, while Key can make contested catches outside and give UK a spark in momentum. Louisville has also allowed 300+ passing yards in their last two games to Virginia and Miami (FL), with the Hurricanes also getting 159 rushing yards (second-most allowed by Louisville this season).
The latter is especially important, since Louisville will be trying to stop a running back (Davis) that is nearing 1,000 yards on the season. The Cardinals have to limit the big plays by the Wildcats and be able to get the crowd fired up for third-and-medium or third-and-long opportunities.
- Will Louisville play with passion, not ego?
Yes, I think we have all seen the comments Walker made earlier this week about Louisville being “snobby and entitled.” (As an aside, the snobbiest thing I have ever done was eat at Hell’s Kitchen a couple months ago in Miami. That’s it.)
Amongst all the things said in the build up leading up to this week, though, the most important takeaway I had was what Quincy Riley had to say in Monday’s meeting with the media.
“Coach English always tells us to play with passion, not ego,” said Riley.
Maybe I’m overanalyzing this, but this is an important aspect of rivalry games. Checking your ego at the door and focusing on the game at hand is the most important part of winning these games, especially as a home favorite. It’s been a huge detriment to the Cardinals in recent years with the rivalry game, and given Brohm’s staff has highlighted the importance of this game on record, one has to wonder if Louisville’s mindset will change there on Saturday.
